We give a theoretical answer to a natural question arising from a few years
of computational experiments on the problem of sorting a permutation by th
e minimum number of reversals, which has relevant applications in computati
onal molecular biology. The experiments carried out on the problem showed t
hat the so-called alternating-cycle lower bound is equal to the optimal sol
ution value in almost all cases, and this is the main reason why the state-
of-the-art algorithms for the problem are quite effective in practice. Sinc
e worst-case analysis cannot give an adequate justification for this observ
ation, we focus our attention on estimating the probability that, for a ran
dom permutation of n elements, the above lower bound is not tight. We show
that this probability is low even for small n, and asymptotically Theta(1/n
(5)), i.e., O(1/n(5)) and Omega(1/n(5)). This gives a satisfactory explanat
ion to empirical observations and shows that the problem of sorting by reve
rsals and its alternating-cycle relaxation are essentially the same problem
, with the exception of a small fraction of "pathological" instances, justi
fying the use of algorithms which are heavily based on this relaxation. Fro
m our analysis we obtain convenient sufficient conditions to test if the al
ternating-cycle lower bound is tight for a given instance. We also consider
the case of signed permutations, for which the analysis is much simpler, a
nd show that the probability that the alternating-cycle lower bound is not
tight for a random signed permutation of m elements is asymptotically Theta
(1/m(2)).