Resolving discrepancies between a meta-analysis and a subsequent large controlled trial

Context A recent mete-analysis found calcium supplementation to be highly e ffective in preventing preeclampsia but a large National Institutes of Heal th trial (Calcium for Preeclampsia Prevention [CPEP]) found no risk reducti on due to calcium in healthy nulliparous women. Objectives To resolve discrepancies between the results of the meta-analysi s and the CPEP trial and to assess the role of effect heterogeneity in the discrepancies. Data Sources Literature search of English-language articles published prior to July 10, 1997, the date of publication of the CPEP trial, using MEDLINE and by a manual search of bibliographies of published articles. Study Selection Trials were included if they reported data on preeclampsia and calcium supplementation. Fourteen trials were systematically evaluated for differences in study design and patient populations. One trial was excl uded because its results were reported after publication of the major CPEP results. Data Extraction The sample size and number of subjects who developed preecl ampsia in the calcium supplementation group vs a control group were recorde d and analyzed on an intent-to-treat basis. Each author independently extra cted the data. Data Synthesis Substantial heterogeneity existed across trials (P = .001). After stratifying studies by the presence of a placebo-controlled group and by high-risk and low-risk populations, the conclusions of the meta-analysi s of placebo-controlled trials enrolling a low-risk population (relative ri sk, 0.79; 99% confidence interval, 0.44-1.42; P = .30) were compatible with the conclusions of the CPEP trial that calcium supplementation does not pr event preeclampsia in healthy nulliparous women. In contrast, the data impl ied a strong beneficial calcium effect (relative risk, 0.19; 99% confidence interval, 0.08-0.46; P = .001) in healthy high-risk subject populations. H owever, only 225 women were analyzed and because of inconsistent data, thes e results remain equivocal. Conclusions Further studies are needed to establish the efficacy of calcium for preeclampsia prevention in healthy high-risk populations. A single sum mary measure does not adequately describe the findings of a meta-analysis w hen the observed effects in individual studies differ substantially. In suc h settings the primary focus should be to identify and incorporate pertinen t covariates that reduce heterogeneity and allow for optimum treatment stra tegies.