Alcohol consumption and divorce rates in the United States

Objective: The objective of the present study is to analyze time series dat a on alcohol consumption and divorce rates and assess the directionality of this relationship using alternative aggregate measures of alcohol consumpt ion rates. Method: Granger's causality test and Box-Jenkins time series ana lysis are used to examine aggregate data on divorce rates and two indicator s of alcohol consumption: a per capita consumption measure based on sales a nd shipments, and an expenditure-based measure for U.S. data from 1934 to 1 987. Results: A consumption increase of 1 liter of alcohol per capita bring s about an increase in the divorce rate of about 20%. This finding contrast s with results, using expenditures as the aggregate alcohol measure, that s how that an increase of 1/1,000 in the divorce rate leads to a 10% increase in alcohol expenditures. (These latter findings confirm earlier published results.) Conclusions: The results from the present study provide support b oth for the effects of heavy drinking on divorce rates and the effects of d ivorce rates on expenditure's for alcoholic beverages. While both aggregate measures of alcohol consumption are highly correlated, they may tap differ ent aspects of consumption. The relationship between marital instability an d alcohol consumption is far from a simple one, and more complete conceptua l models need to be developed. Aggregate-level findings indicate that it is reasonable to assume that a bidirectional influence exists between divorce rates and alcohol consumption.