China: the soyabean-pork dilemma

In 1996 the population of China reached 1.23 billion, 22 % of the world pop ulation, and is expected to increase to 1.5 billion by 2020. As China has o nly 7 % of the world's arable land such population increases are likely to have an important impact on food supply in China and the world. Projections of the potential impact are discussed. The restructuring of Chinese agricu lture at the end of the 1970s has led to dramatic increases in agricultural production and food consumption, in particular of animal products, fruit a nd vegetables. Along with these rapid changes there is evidence of a nutrit ion transition in which diseases associated with affluence are becoming mor e prevalent than deficiency diseases. This transition has led to concern ab out the evolving dietary pattern. The replacement of legumes, including soy abean, by meat and other animal products as rich sources of protein and oth er nutrients has been controversially argued on grounds of nutritional heal th, ecological impact, economic effects and world food supply. These argume nts are reviewed and the pressures internal and external to China concernin g the production and consumption of animal v. legume products are presented . It is concluded that nutritional policies to promote the consumption of s oyabean are unlikely to be effective in the context of an increasingly free and global market.