Subjective life expectancy in the US: correspondence to actuarial estimates by age, sex and race

This study maps the relationship between subjective and actuarial life expe ctancy in a 1995 national sample of 2037 Americans of ages 18-95, Subjectiv e estimates parallel age-specific actuarial ones based on current age-speci fic mortality rates. However males expect to live about 3 years longer than the actuarial estimate and blacks expect to live about 6 years longer. The apparent optimism remains after adjusting for socioeconomic status and the signs and symptoms of good health. Contrary to economists' rational-expect ations hypothesis, young adults do not adjust their life expectancies upwar d to account for the favorable trends in mortality rates. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.