The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in Ethiopia

We? Examine recent fertility trends in Ethiopia for evidence of shorf- and long-term responses to famine, political events, and economic decline. We u se retrospective data on children ever born from the 1990 National Family a nd Fertility Survey to estimate trends in annual marital conception probabi lities, controlling for women's demographic and socioeconomic characteristi cs. The results of our analysis provide evidence of significant short-term declines in conception probabilities during years of famine and major polit ical and economic upheaval. In the longer term, marital fertility in both u rban and rural areas declined in the 1980s after increasing moderately in t he 1970s.