We study the impact of regional trading arrangements (RIAs) on tariff polic
y toward nonmembers in a three-good, three-country political economy model.
Comparing free-trade areas (FTAs) with and without rules of origin and cus
toms unions (CUs) with varying degrees of economic and political integratio
n, we show how increasingly deep integration can lead to rising protection
against nonmember imports. Other differences between FTAs and CUs, like the
extent of free-riding in a CU and any component of a CU's tariff designed
to improve the members' terms of trade, are not explicitly accounted for. N
evertheless, the results suggest that FTAs are likely to welfare dominate C
Us.