Where Hobbes meets Hobson: Core conflict and colonialism, 1495-1985

This study explores the connections between the Long Wave and the Leadershi p Cycle by examining their possible effect on long-term patterns in major p ower war and colonial expansion. Building directly upon the Leadership Cycl e work of Modelski and Thompson, Goldstein's Long Wave analysis, and the Mo dern World System School, a new analytical framework is developed. This fra mework treats the Leadership Cycle and Long Wave as separate, though interc onnected processes, and permits derivation of empirically testable hypothes es concerning the effects of the Leadership Cycle and Long Wave on armed co nflict in the system, and on the timing of colonial expansion by major powe rs into the periphery. This "phase-pair" framework also allows assessment o f the effect of each systemic process while controlling for the effect of t he other. The results of our analysis suggest that the Long Wave and Leader ship Cycle not only are associated with the most severe or systemic wars, b ut may affect conflict more broadly within the system. We also find strong identifiable effects of these processes on colonization. Finally, all resul ts takes together indicate the Long Wave and Leadership Cycle should be tre ated as distinct, though interrelated processes.