Motor vehicle stocks, scrappage, and sales

This paper offers a framework for forecasting aggregate sales of new motor vehicles; this framework incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the s tate of the economy, consumer "preferences," new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a ma croeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, this paper presents a new histor ical annual time-series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United Stat es.