Long-term regeneration dynamics of Mediterranean maquis was investigated by
analysing historical aerial photographs of Mt. Carmel, one of the largest
protected areas in the Mediterranean region of Israel. Two sets of aerial p
hotographs were processed, one from 1960 (before the area was protected), a
nd the second from 1992 (21 yr after the area was declared a nature reserve
). The photographs of each year were classified into three vegetation state
s based on the percentage cover of trees: open maquis with tree cover <33.3
%, moderately developed maquis (tree cover 33.3 - 66.6%), and closed maquis
(tree cover >66.6%). Grid maps constructed from the classified images were
used to determine probabilities of transition between vegetation states. C
losed maquis showed zero probability of transition to either open or modera
tely developed maquis. Probabilities of 'forward' transitions (transitions
from low-cover to high-cover classes) were higher on north-facing than on s
outh-facing slopes. On north-facing slopes, the area of open maquis decreas
ed from 87% to 46% during the period studied, while that of closed maquis i
ncreased from 3% to 29%. On south-facing slopes open maquis decreased from
87% to 69% while closed maquis increased from 1% to 8%. Within a particular
aspect, tree cover in 1960 was a reliable predictor of tree cover in 1992.
This indicates that micro-scale patterns of tree distribution in 1960 were
important in determining the structure of the maquis 32 yr later. Simulati
ons based on the empirically derived transition probabilities suggest that,
under current climatic conditions, the process of maquis regeneration on M
t. Carmel may take 500 - 1000 yr.