Inter-relationships between groundnut yield in Senegal, interannual rainfall variability and sea-surface temperatures

Groundnut production strongly contributes to Senegal's economy. Interannual variations of groundnut yield for the country as a whole, and their relati onship with rainfall amounts, are examined for the 31-yr period 1960-1990. it is shown that on that scale, and after removing decadal trends, almost h alf of the valiance is explained by rainfall variability, especially that o f the early part of the rainy season (July-August). Given the high spatial coherence of seasonal rainfall in the region, teleconnections with global- and regional-scale climate dynamics, including sea-surface temperatures, ar e assessed. Though some features are similar to the rest of the Sahel, othe rs are more specific, such as the higher sensitivity to ENSO (El-Nino South ern Oscillation) and to coupled ocean-atmosphere climate anomalies over the nearby Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, which are associated to the latitudi nal location of the ITCZ over the ocean. Lag-correlations with pre-season S ST are also discussed. Some of these teleconnections are used to define pre liminary empirical models for rainfall and groundnut yield prediction for S enegal.