Z. Sen et K. Kocak, Markov models and polygon diagrams for climatological interpretations of cyclones and anticyclones over the northern hemisphere, THEOR APP C, 63(3-4), 1999, pp. 233-242
Annual cyclone and anticyclone numbers in addition to the temperature data
for the northern hemisphere are processed through simple models leading to
meaningful interpretations. Historical climatological characteristics of th
e cyclone and anticyclone numbers are modeled by a first order Markov proce
ss. Statistically indistinguishable synthetic cyclone and anticyclone numbe
rs are generated. Polygon diagrams which show the mutual relationships betw
een average cyclone (anticyclone) numbers and the temperature are employed
for finding possible relevant climatological changes during the record peri
od. A polygon diagram concept is proposed and applied in order to identify
sub-period warming and cooling spells of any desired short or long term dur
ations and their relationship to the annual number of cyclone (anticyclone)
occurrence numbers. The results indicate a decrease (increase) in the cycl
one and anticyclone numbers during cooling (warming) periods. The methodolo
gies proposed in this paper can be easily adopted for cyclone and anticyclo
ne numbers modeling in any part of the world.