GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION AND THE EFFICACY OF CROP PROTECTION - CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE-TRENDS

Actual and potential crop losses of eight major food and cash crops ha ve been estimated by evaluating data from literature and field experim ents. Total losses were calculated from yield reductions due to pathog ens, animal pests and weeds on a regional, continental and global leve l. Since 1965, worldwide production of most crops has increased consid erably. Simultaneously, crop losses in wheat, potatoes, barley and ric e increased by 4 to 10 percent, in maize, soybean, cotton and coffee l osses remained unchanged or slightly decreased. The efficacy of crop p rotection practices was calculated as the percentage of potential loss es prevented by control. The efficacy is highest in cotton (55 percent ), it reaches only 34 to 38 percent in the food crops rice, wheat and maize. The variability among cropping areas is high: In Western Europe , 61 percent of potential crop losses is prevented, in North America a nd Oceania 44, in all other regions 38 percent. Due to the small share of Western Europe in worldwide production of 8 percent, the efficacy of actual crop protection worldwide is only 40 percent. In view of pop ulation growth and rising food demand crop production has to be increa sed substantially. As potential loss rates often increase with attaina ble yields high productivity largely depends on effective crop protect ion management. Scenarios for the production of food crops by the year 2025 in developed and in developing countries are given. Recent and f uture developments in crop protection can contribute to establish sust ainability in agriculture and to preserve natural resources. However, although effective control methods have been developed for most biotic yield constraints, the use of crop protection products is regulated b y economic considerations rather than by food demand.