Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades: influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery

Objectives-To estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the Uni ted Kingdom over the next three decades. Methods-Projection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolatio n of arthroplasty rates from Sweden; a country with recently introduced gui delines. Results-Assuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone. The proportionate chan ge will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubl ing of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85. Changes i n the threshold for surgery may increase this further-up to double the curr ent number. Conclusion-A sharp rise in hip replacements will. be needed to satisfy need s in the UK population over the next 30 years.