The limited role of changing age structure in explaining aggregate crime rates

Changes in the age structure are shown to have a limited impact on aggregat e crime rates. Even the dramatic transformation of the age distribution acc ompanying the baby boom shifted crime rates by no more than 1% per year. Pr ojected changes in the age distribution between 1995 and 2010 will lead to slight declines in per capita crime rates. These results are at odds with r ecent predictions of an impending demographically driven crime wave. Such p redictions have focused exclusively on a rise in juvenile crime and ignored the offsetting decreases among adults.