P. Garnero et al., Markers of bone turnover predict postmenopausal forearm bone loss over 4 years: The OFELY study, J BONE MIN, 14(9), 1999, pp. 1614-1621
The ability of biochemical markers to predict the rate of postmenopausal bo
ne loss is still controversial. To investigate this issue further, baseline
levels of a panel of specific and sensitive biochemical bone markers were
correlated to the rate of change of forearm bone mineral density (BMD) asse
ssed by four measurements over a 4-year period using dual-energy X-ray abso
rptiometry in a large population-based prospective cohort of 305 women aged
50-88 years (mean 64 years), 1-38 years postmenopausal. In the whole popul
ation, higher baseline levels of bone formation (serum osteocalcin and seru
m type I collagen N-terminal propeptide) and bone resorption markers (urina
ry N-telopeptides; urinary and serum C-telopeptides) were significantly ass
ociated,vith faster BMD loss (r = -0.19 to -0.30, p < 0.001), independently
of age. In women within 5 years of menopause that have-the highest rate of
bone loss, the predictive value of bone markers was increased with correla
tion coefficients reaching 0.53. Women with an abnormally high bone turnove
r, i.e., with levels of bone markers at baseline 2 SD above the mean of pre
menopausal women, had a rate of bone loss that was 2- to 6-fold higher than
women with a low turnover (p = 0.01-0.0001) according to the marker. When
the population was categorized according to quartiles of bone markers at ba
seline, a similar relationship between increased levels of bone markers and
faster rate of bone loss was found (p = 0.008-0.0001). In the logistic reg
ression model, the odds-ratio of fast bone loss, defined as the rate of bon
e loss in the upper tertile of the population, was increased by 1.8- to 3.2
-fold for levels of biochemical markers in the high turnover group compared
with levels within the premenopausal range, with, however, a limited value
for identifying individual fast bone losers. We conclude that increased le
vels of some of the new biochemical markers of bone turnover are associated
with greater radial bone loss. Because increased bone loss is associated w
ith an increased risk of fracture, bone turnover markers may be useful to i
mprove the prediction of the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.