Economic innovation, systemic leadership, and military preparations for war - The US case

Focusing on an initial and potentially expandable four-variable model combi ning lending sector innovation, leading sector concentration, naval capabil ity concentration, and military preparation for warfare, a vector autoregre ssion analysis of U.S. data for the 1801-1992 period reveals a substantial degree of interrelationship. The two leading sector variables "Granger caus e" the two military-political variables (naval capability concentration and military preparation for warfare). Eight of nine other anticipated relatio nships linking specific variables are obtained, as are two unanticipated re lationships linking naval concentration negatively to the leading sector va riables. A very tight, coevolutionary pattern is found to characterize the economic growth-systemic leadership-military mobilization experience of the United States, thereby underlining the constraints of structural change.