A stochastic logistic innovation diffusion model studying the electricity consumption in Greece and the United States

In this article, a stochastic innovation diffusion model is proposed, deriv ed from the original logistic growth model assuming that the future remaini ng growth of the underlying process is not known with certainty but is mode led using an appropriate stochastic process. Ar any time, the potential ado pters of a product are affected by a number of socioeconomic factors that d etermine their nonuniform behavior, and the way they act is considered to b e random. The stochastic model is solved analytically using the theory of r educible stochastic differential equations. The parameter estimators of the model are derived using two procedures for discrete observations of the pr ocess. Finally, the model is applied to the data of electricity consumption in Greece and the: United States. The prediction of the consumption proces s is made possible by defining a subdomain such that all possible trajector ies of the process should belong within a predefined probability. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.