The far to equilibrium time evolution of the ozone layer: steady-state andcritical behaviour

The ozone layer stability in the far equilibrium conditions was studied in the framework of the irreversible thermodynamics. Following the Prigogine's procedures concerning the Brusselator model, the phenomenological model of the ozone layer leads to a system of non-linear differential equations. Th e steady-state solution of the system outlines the fact that the ozone laye r can reach a steady state in the far equilibrium conditions for any pollut ant concentration values. Applying the Lyapounov's theorem of stability, it is demonstrated that all the steady-state solutions for the ozone layer ar e stable ones. The natural limit of the ozone concentration is calculated, as well as that of the pollutant concentrations (the upper limits). This pr ocedure suggests a way of assessing the effect of the anthropogenetic activ ities. The transmission coefficients of the UV radiation are calculated est ablishing the lower limits of the "permitting" pollution. The error analysi s shows that the prediction of the stability of the steady state of the ozo ne layer does not depend on the errors of the input data. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.