A modified version of the probabilistic model developed by the authors
for damage evolution analysis of laminates subjected to random loadin
g is utilized to predict long-term strength of laminates. The model as
sumes that each ply in a laminate consists of a large number of mesovo
lumes. Probabilistic variation functions for mesovolumes stiffnesses a
s well as strengths are used in the analysis. Stochastic strains are c
alculated using the lamination theory and random function theory. Dete
rioration of ply stiffnesses is calculated on the basis of the probabi
lities of mesovolumes failures using the theory of excursions of rando
m process beyond the limits. Long-term strength and damage accumulatio
n in a Kevlar(R)/epoxy laminate under tension and complex in-plane loa
ding are investigated. Effects of the mean level and stochastic deviat
ion of loading on damage evolution and time to failure are discussed.
It is found that the effect of the deviation in loading is more pronou
nced at lower mean loading levels. Long-term cumulative damage at the
time of the final failure at low loading levels is higher than at high
loading Levels. The analytical results are qualitatively compared wit
h the available experimental observations.