Split-ticket voting in German Federal elections, 1953-90: an example of sophisticated balloting?

Though the German electoral system has provided the opportunity of split-ti cket voting since 1953, until now there has only been mere speculation conc erning the rationality of ticket-splitting. In this paper we examine the ra tionality thesis empirically, using data provided by the official represent ative electoral statistics of the Federal Republic. Modifying the Downsian notion of rational voting, rational ticket-splitting is defined in terms of coalition building and of voters' expectations of the electoral success of candidates and parties. Applying this conceptual framework, it will be sho wn that the combinations of first and second votes actually chosen by a maj ority of the German electorate can rather be conceived of as a product of a ccident than of tactical considerations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.