Application of a probabilistic risk assessment methodology to a lead smelter site

Exposure of children to lead in the environment was assessed at the Murray Smelter Superfund site using both a deterministic risk assessment approach, the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model, and a probabilist ic approach, the Integrated Stochastic Exposure (ISE) model. When site-spec ific data on lead in environmental media were input as point estimates into the IEUBK model, unacceptable risks were predicted for children living wit hin five of eight study zones. The predicted soil cleanup goal was 550 ppm. Concentration and exposure data were then input into the ISE model as prob ability distribution functions and a one-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis ( 1-D MCA) was run to predict the expected distribution of exposures and bloo d lead values. Uncertainty surrounding these predictions was examined in a two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis (2-D MCA). The ISE model predicted ris ks that were in the same rank order as those predicted by the IEUBK model, although the probability estimates of exceeding a blood lead level of 10 mu g/dl (referred to as the P10) from the ISE model were uniformly lower than those predicted by the IEUBK model. The 2-D MCA allowed evaluation of the confidence around each P10 level, and identified the main sources of both u ncertainty and variability in exposure estimates. The ISE model suggested c leanup goals ranging from 1300 to 1500 ppm might be protective at this site .