Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for 'initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach

This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a t emporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinant s within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based an the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegra tion, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the im pulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional 'structural' hypot hesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, alth ough not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadl y consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the 'ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variable s in ensuring 'initial' fertility decline than with the conventional 'struc tural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural chang e as a pre-condition for 'initial' fertility decline. JEL classification: J 13, O15, C52.