Vulnerability of the Netherlands and Northwest Europe to storm damage under climate change - A model approach based on storm damage in the Netherlands

Storms occasionally bring havoc to Northwest Europe. At present, a single s torm may cause damage of up to 7 billion U.S.$, of which a substantial part is insured. One scenario of climate change indicates that storm intensity in Northwest Europe could increase by 1-9% because of the doubling of CO2 c oncentrations in the atmosphere. A geographic-explicit, statistical model, based on recent storms and storm damage data for the Netherlands, shows tha t an increase of 2% in wind intensity by the year 2015 could lead to a 50% increase in storm damage to houses and businesses. Only 20% of the increase is due to population and economic growth. A 6% increase could even triple the damage. A simpler model - based on national average data and combined w ith a stochastic storm generator - shows that the average annual damage cou ld increase by 80% with a 2% increase in wind intensity. A 6% wind intensit y increase could lead to an average annual damage increase of 500%. The dam age in Northwest Europe is about a factor 6 higher than the damage in the N etherlands. Little potential seems to exist for reducing the vulnerability to storms in the Netherlands. More attention should be given to planning at the government level for disaster relief and to the development of coping strategies.