Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic changes

Accurate records of basinwide Atlantic and U.S. landfalling hurricanes exte nd back to the mid 1940s and the turn of the century respectively, as a res ult of aircraft reconnaissance and instrumented weather stations along the U.S. coasts. Such long-term records are not exceeded elsewhere in the tropi cs. The Atlantic hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes and U.S. normalize d damage time series are examined for interannual trends and multidecadal v ariability. It is found that only weak linear trends can be ascribed to the hurricane activity and that multidecadal variability is more characteristi c of the region. Various environmental factors including Caribbean sea leve l pressures and 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscilla tion, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, African West Sahel rainfall and Atl antic sea surface temperatures, are analyzed for interannual links to the A tlantic hurricane activity. All show significant, concurrent relationships to the frequency, intensity and duration of Atlantic hurricanes. Additional ly, variations in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are significantly linked to changes in U.S. tropical cyclone-caused damages. Finally much of the mu ltidecadal hurricane activity can be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Ma de - an empirical orthogonal function pattern derived from a global sea sur face temperature record. Such linkages may allow for prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity on a multidecadal basis. These results are placed into the context of climate change and natural hazards policy.