PREDICTING ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS - THE ROLE OF SOCIAL DEVIANCE AND VIOLATIONS

A study by West, Elander & French (1993a) examining the relationship b etween mild social deviance and accident rates on the road was extende d and replicated. West et al. (1993a) report that the relationship bet ween mild social deviance and accident rates was partly mediated by fa ster driving speed. The aim of the present research was to determine w hether a broader measure of road traffic violations would fully mediat e the relationship between mild social deviance and accident rates. Se lf-reports of violations (using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire), m ild social deviance and accident rates were collected for 830 drivers, together with information about age, sex and annual mileage. A series of Poisson regressions were computed to investigate the relationship between these predictor variables and accident rates. The data confirm ed the relationship between mild social deviance and accident rates. H owever, this relationship appeared to be mediated by the propensity to commit driving violations and unspecified factors associated with age . The results of the analysis are discussed with reference to the appr opriateness of various intervention strategies to promote safer drivin g.