Forecasting personal income tax revenue: Recent New Jersey experience

New Jersey income tax return data are examined to determine how the 1997 ca pital gains story compared to that in 1996 and 1995. The 1997 realizations are characterized as a continuation of the strong growth seen in 1995 and 1 996, rather than as a one-time surge. One difference was the concentration of realizations in returns with over $1 million in income. Matching high-in come returns in 1995 and 1996 with any return filed in 1996 or 1997, respec tively, shows the volatile nature of realizations. But the similar distribu tion of outcomes in both years suggests that the same underlying process wa s operating.