US policy options toward an emerging China

The debate over how to respond to China's emergence on the world stage is o ften simplistic, limited to the stark alternatives of 'containment' or 'eng agement.' In addition to these two options, the United States could also se ek to 'transform' China into a democracy or to 'condition' its behaviour th rough a mix of inducements and punishments. All of these options have diffe rent assumptions regarding the impact of interdependence, the prospects for democratization, and the likelihood of confronting a hostile China in the future. Despite the claims of engagement's advocates, the effects of democr atization and interdependence are uncertain at best, suggesting that cautio n is in order. Conversely, Beijing would be highly hostile to any shift fro m engagement, and US allies also would not support a change under present c onditions. No consensus in the United States has emerged to replace engagem ent. Thus, although many of engagement's premises are not sound, it remains the most feasible policy under present conditions. Conditioning, however, would be an attractive and prudent alternative should allies and domestic o pinion favor a more confrontational stance toward China.