Prediction and the quantification of uncertainty

Prediction is based on the comparison of results from the statistical analy sis of observational data and from the scientific modeling of the system be ing observed. Effective prediction imposes new as well as familiar requirem ents on observation and scientific modeling, as will be reviewed here. We e mphasize issues specific to prediction in the context of technology. Recent results of the authors, colleagues, and others which address these require ments will be presented. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved .