Calculating and addressing uncertainty for risk-based allowable outage times

This article examines the calculation and treatment of uncertainty in risk- based allowable outage times (AOTs) for operational control at nuclear powe r plants, where an AOT is defined as the time that a component or system is permitted to be out of service. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission NRC h as explored the possibility of using a nuclear power plant's probabilistic risk assessment results to determine component or system AOTs. The analysis and results from previous work prepared for the NRC on determining risk-ba sed AOTs are presented. As part of the discussion, the article examines the inherent uncertainty in calculating risk-based AOTs and presents the diffi culties in calculating these risk-based AOTs. It is noted that care should be taken when dealing with uncertainty analysis results where a time-interv al is the outcome of the analysis. In addition, potential improvements in t he mechanism of calculating risk-based AOTs are suggested. (C) 1999 Elsevie r Science Ltd. All rights reserved.