C. Hoschl et J. Kozeny, PREDICTING ACADEMIC-PERFORMANCE OF MEDICAL-STUDENTS - THE FIRST 3 YEARS, The American journal of psychiatry, 154(6), 1997, pp. 87-92
Objective: The purpose of this exploratory study was to identify a clu
ster of variables that would most economically explain variations in t
he grade point averages of medical students during the first 3 years o
f study. Method: Data were derived from a study of 92 students admitte
d to the 3rd Faculty of Medicine in 1992-1993 academic year and who we
re still in the medical school at the end of the sixth semester (third
year). Stepwise regression analysis was used to build models for pred
icting log-transformed changes in grade point average after six semest
ers of study-at the end of the first, second, and third years. Predict
or variables were chosen from four domains: 1) high school grade point
averages in physics, mathematics, and the Czech language over 4 years
of study, 2) results of admission tests in biology, chemistry, and ph
ysics, 3) admission committee's assessment of the applicant's ability
to reproduce a text, motivation to study medicine, and social maturity
, and 4) scores on the sentimentality and attachment scales of the Tri
dimensional Personality Questionnaire. Results: The regression model,
which included performance in high school physics, results of the admi
ssion test in physics, assessment of the applicant's motivation to stu
dy medicine, and attachment scale score, accounted for 32% of the chan
ge in grade point average over six semesters of study. The regression
models using the first-, second-, and third-year grade point averages
as the dependent variables showed slightly decreasing amounts of expla
ined variance toward the end of the third year of study and within dom
ains, changing the structure of predictor variables. Conclusions: The
results suggest that variables chosen from the assessment domains of h
igh school performance, written entrance examination, admission interv
iew and personality traits may be significant predictors of academic s
uccess during the first 3 years of medical study.