Energy, diversity and development in economic systems; an empirical analysis

As economic systems develop over time they tend to become more complex with more structure and greater throughputs, assuming favorable conditions. Ene rgy use increases as more economic sectors develop and more channels for fl ow are opened. Economic diversity, as measured by the number of economic se ctors using energy and the equatability of flows between them, generally in creases. As diversity increases the efficiency of generating outputs with a given amount of energy also increases. Development capacity, the product o f system energy throughput and diversity of flows, is a measure of the pote ntial system output and is calculated for selected countries. Capacity chan ges over time are shown to relate to changes in economic output in selected countries. Two distinct development strategies become evident, one which p romotes energy use and one which emphasizes diversity. While most countries utilize a mix of the two, developing countries generally rely more on incr easing energy use to increase output while developed countries tend to beco me more diverse as a means of increasing outputs. Sustainability is enhance d by strategies which promote diversity and resource use efficiency in econ omic systems. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.