Opportunities and roles for models to aid the management of agricultural and other natural resources within the variable climate of Australia

Australian rural producers and other land managers are being encouraged, un der the National Drought Policy, to be more self-reliant in the way they co pe with their highly variable climate. The roles of models in implementing this policy are described. These include using statistical and General Circ ulation Models as the basis of improved seasonal forecasting, hydrological and agronomic models to monitor regional changes in soil moisture and veget ative cover, and Decision Support Systems to estimate the value of adapting management to take advantage of seasonal forecasts or of climate variabili ty per se. A national research program was undertaken to study how agronomi c models could be used to estimate the impact of drought on crop and grassl and production, since only in the most exceptional droughts would rural pro ducers be eligible for government support. Such models proved effective for evaluating droughts in specific locations, and are now being integrated wi th remote sensing and other data into Geographic Information Systems to aid regional assessment of drought. It was concluded that these tools provided a sound basis for improving the management of agricultural and other natur al resources. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd.