Dh. White, Opportunities and roles for models to aid the management of agricultural and other natural resources within the variable climate of Australia, ENVIRON INT, 25(6-7), 1999, pp. 907-912
Australian rural producers and other land managers are being encouraged, un
der the National Drought Policy, to be more self-reliant in the way they co
pe with their highly variable climate. The roles of models in implementing
this policy are described. These include using statistical and General Circ
ulation Models as the basis of improved seasonal forecasting, hydrological
and agronomic models to monitor regional changes in soil moisture and veget
ative cover, and Decision Support Systems to estimate the value of adapting
management to take advantage of seasonal forecasts or of climate variabili
ty per se. A national research program was undertaken to study how agronomi
c models could be used to estimate the impact of drought on crop and grassl
and production, since only in the most exceptional droughts would rural pro
ducers be eligible for government support. Such models proved effective for
evaluating droughts in specific locations, and are now being integrated wi
th remote sensing and other data into Geographic Information Systems to aid
regional assessment of drought. It was concluded that these tools provided
a sound basis for improving the management of agricultural and other natur
al resources. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd.