Predicting belief in paranormal phenomena: A comparison of conditional andprobabilistic reasoning

Previous studies, using student participants, have investigated conditional reasoning (Wierzbicki, 1985) and probabilistic reasoning (Blackmore and Tr oscianko, 1985) separately as predictors of belief in paranormal phenomena. Findings show that the fewer reasoning errors made, the less likely people are to believe. The current study investigated both types of reasoning wit hin the same analysis in order to find the extent to which each would predi ct paranormal belief by itself. Sixty-five non-undergraduate participants c ompleted two self-report questionnaires to ascertain their degree of belief in the paranormal, and a reasoning test. The expected negative correlation between reasoning ability and paranormal belief was found. However, while conditional reasoning scores predicted paranormal belief (r = -0.27), proba bilistic reasoning-scores did not (r = 0.01). It was noted that the sample used was possibly biased, due to a lack of sufficiently sceptical participa nts, and that future studies may need to target people with different degre es of belief. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.