Cost benefit analysis of European air quality targets for sulphur dioxide,nitrogen dioxide and fine and suspended particulate matter in cities

The European Commission has proposed air quality standards for NO2, SO2 and PM10 to be in force by 2010. The present paper presents a study that gauge d their costs and benefits. An analysis of the expected emissions for 2010 (reference emission scenario), using simplified air quality models, showed that non-compliance with these standards will occur in cities only, not in rural areas. Most compliance problems are expected for PM10, least for SO2. Central estimates of the costs to meet standards range from 21 MECU (SO2), to 79 MECU (NO2) to 87-225 MECU (PM10). The estimated benefits are 83-3783 MECU (SO2), 408-5900 MECU (NO2), and 5007-51247 MECU (PM10). Uncertainties are high, due to errors and incertitude in various steps of the methodolog y, mainly the estimation of the human health effects, in particular effects on mortality, and in the valuation of a statistical life. In the case of P M10, additional uncertainty results from the small size of the air quality database. Notwithstanding the uncertainties, the indications are that the b enefits exceed the costs.