Process design and costing of bioethanol technology: A tool for determining the status and direction of research and development

Bioethanol is a fuel-grade ethanol made from trees, grasses, and waste mate rials. It represents a sustainable substitute for gasoline in today's passe nger cars. Modeling and design of processes for making bioethanol are criti cal tools used in the U.S. Department of Energy's bioethanol research and d evelopment program. We use such analysis to guide new directions for resear ch and to help us understand the level at which and the time when bioethano l will achieve commercial success. This paper provides an update on our lat est estimates for current and projected costs of bioethanol. These estimate s are the result of very sophisticated modeling and costing efforts underta ken in the program over the past few years. Bioethanol could cost anywhere from $1.16 to $1.44 per gallon, depending on the technology and the availab ility of low cost feedstocks for conversion: to ethanol. While this cost ra nge opens the door to fuel blending opportunities, in which ethanol can be used, for example, to improve the octane rating of gasoline, it is not curr ently competitive with gasoline as a bulk fuel. Research strategies and goa ls described in this paper have been translated into cost savings for ethan ol. Our analysis of these goals shows that the cost of ethanol could drop b y 40 cents per gallon over the next ten years by taking advantage of exciti ng new tools in biotechnology that will improve yield and performance in th e conversion process.