There is growing evidence that the mortality of microbial cells, and the in
activation of bacterial spores, exposed to a hostile environment need not f
ollow a first order kinetics. Consequently microbial semi-logarithmic survi
val curves are frequently non-linear, and their shape can change with tempe
rature or under different chemical agent concentrations, for example. Exper
imental semi-logarithmic survival curves under unchanging conditions, can b
e described by an equation whose coefficients are determined by the particu
lar temperature, agent concentration, etc. If the dependency of these coeff
icients on temperature, agent concentration, etc., can be expressed algebra
ically, then in principle one can construct the survival curve for the chan
ging or transient conditions that exist in industrial thermal and non-therm
al treatments. This is done by incorporating the lethal agent's mode of cha
nge, e.g. the heating or pressure curve into the survival curve equation pa
rameters. The result is a mathematical model that would enable the calculat
ion of the time needed to achieve any degree of microbial survival ratio nu
merically, without the need to assume any mortality kinetics. Such a model
can be used to assess, or compare, the efficacy of different preservation p
rocesses where the intensity of the lethal agent changes with time. The con
cept is demonstrated with a special simple case using simulated thermal tre
atments. The outcome of the simulations is presented as planar log survival
vs time relationships and as curves in a three-dimensional log survival-te
mperature-time or log survival-concentration-time space. (C) 1999 Canadian
Institute of Food Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd
. All rights reserved.