Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950-1998): Implications for the current season

Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes, those of category 3 or h igher on the Saffir-Simpson scale (e.g., having a maximum sustained wind sp eed of greater than or equal to 50 m s(-1)), in the Atlantic basin during t he interval of 1950-1998 are investigated in relation to the El Nino-Southe rn Oscillation cycle and to the postulated "more" versus "less" activity mo des for intense hurricane activity. Based on Poisson statistics, when the h urricane season is simply classified as "non-El Nino-related" (NENR), the p robability of having three or more intense hurricanes is approximate to 53% , while it is only approximate to 14% when it is classified as "El Nino-rel ated" (ENR). including the activity levels ("more" versus "less"), the prob ability of having three or more intense hurricanes is computed to be approx imate to 71% for the "more-NENR" season, 30% for the "less-NENR" season, 17 % for the "more-ENR" season, and 12% for the "less-ENR" season. Because the 1999 hurricane season is believed to be a "more-NENR" season, the number o f intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin should be above average in number, probably about 4 +/- 1 or higher.