This article was adapted from a speech given at the Tenth Annual Conference
of the Committee of 100, held on May 1, 1999, in New York City. The confer
ence took place before NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, w
hich ignited widespread indignation among the Chinese people and caused a f
urther deterioration of U.S.-China relations. From the Chinese standpoint,
the tone of this article might therefore seem too mild toward the United St
ates. Yet, it was written from a long-term and macroscopic perspective even
ts, The general lines of concern and point of view, expressed in this artic
le remain valid and have been borne out by subsequent events. The author pr
efers to publish the article without trying to bring it zip to date.