A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a gl obal AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroac tive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 ar e performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The predictio n skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the ph enomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.