Extreme value theory for the maximum of a time series of daily precipitatio
n amount is described. A chain-dependent process is assumed as a stochastic
model for daily precipitation, with the intensity distribution being the g
amma. To examine how the effective return period for extreme high precipita
tion amounts would change as the parameters of the chain-dependent process
change (i.e., probability of a wet day, shape and scale parameters of the g
amma distribution), a sensitivity analysis is performed. This sensitivity a
nalysis is guided by some results from statistical downscaling that relate
patterns in large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation, pro
viding a physically plausible range of changes in the parameters. For the p
articular location considered in the example, the effective return period i
s most sensitive to the scale parameter of the intensity distribution. (C)
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