AGE-STRUCTURE TRENDS AND PRISON POPULATIONS

This article explores the influence of age structure on the number of inmates in state prisons and the number of court court commitments to prisons. Several studies had incorrectly predicted that the aging of t he baby boom cohort would cause prison populations to decline in the 1 990s, and this research endeavors to determine the reason for this fai lure. Using a multiple time series design with state data over approxi mately twenty years, the analysis regresses prison variables on the pr oportion of population in high-imprisonment-rate age groups (eighteen to twenty-four, twenty-five to thirty-four, and thirty-five to forty-f our). A major finding is that age structure is, in fact, related to co urt commitments and prison populations, This is also tote for both mal es and females when studied separately, The failure of predictions tha t prison commitments and population would decline is caused by other f actors that have stronger impacts than age-structure trends, These tre nds will place downward pressures on future prison populations, but th e trends cannot be used to forecast prison populations. (C) 1997 Elsev ier Science Ltd.