Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity

To establish useful warning systems for hurricanes, it is necessary to accu rately predict both hurricane intensity and track. But although the forecas ting of hurricane tracks has improved over the past 30 years, the factors t hat control the intensity of hurricanes are still poorly understood, leadin g to almost no reliability in forecasts of hurricane intensity evolution. E fforts to improve intensity forecasts have focused almost exclusively on ch aracterizing the dynamical interactions between hurricanes and their atmosp heric environment. Here I use a simple numerical model to demonstrate that, in most cases, the evolution of hurricane intensity depends mainly on thre e factors: the storm's initial intensity, the thermodynamic state of the at mosphere through which it moves, and the heat exchange with the upper layer of the ocean under the core of the hurricane, Such a limited number of con trolling factors offers hope that, given an accurate forecast of a hurrican e's track, its intensity can be reliably forecast using very simple models.