In constructing a market strategy, a telco needs to determine the sizing of
the market if wishes to service. A balance must be achieved between the le
vel of capacity and the reach of their various networks, matched to the pre
dicted market demand for each of these networks. The decision for the telco
to invest either through building ifs own networks or leasing from of her
operators, will depend on how the marketplace is changing. This in turn wil
l be influenced by customer behaviour and how this will affect market trend
s. The investment decision will also be dependent upon whether the telco is
an established operator or a new entrant.
This paper concentrates on the demand for residential services provided ove
r fixed and mobile networks. In particular, the trend for some customers to
disconnect from fixed networks and use mobile-only services for their tele
communications requirements will be explored. The implications for the bala
nce that telcos need to achieve in the provision of their fixed and mobile
networks are examined. An. interactive model using system dynamics has been
created to allow policy makers to explore different 'what-if' scenarios. T
hus the implications of various proposed strategies can be investigated bef
ore a commitment to invest is made.
The model allows a holistic view of issues such as how the number of custom
ers and usage will be affected by different tariffing structures. It also p
rovides a method for determining the 'churn' of customers created by a comp
etitor announcing a cut in call costs. A further benefit to a telco is that
revenue per customer for the whole market can be calculated. Ultimately, a
more in-depth understanding oft he marketplace is developed, enabling the
creation of network strategies that have a greater opportunity for successf
ul revenue and profit generation, as well as attracting and retaining a lar
ge customer base.