Predicting active pulmonary tuberculosis using an artificial neural network

Background: Nosocomial outbreaks of tuberculosis (TB) have been attributed to unrecognized pulmonary TB, Accurate assessment in identifying index case s of active TB is essential in preventing transmission of the disease. Objectives: To develop an artificial neural network using clinical and radi ographic information to predict active pulmonary TB at the time of presenta tion at a health-care facility that is superior to physicians' opinion, Design: Nonconcurrent prospective study, Setting: University-affiliated hospital. Participants: A derivation group of 563 isolation episodes and a validation group of 119 isolation episodes. Interventions: A general regression neura l network (GRNN) was used to develop the predictive model. Measurements: Predictive accuracy of the neural network compared with clini cians' assessment, Results: Predictive accuracy was assessed by the c-index, which is equivale nt to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The GRNN significantly outperformed the physicians' prediction, with calculated c-in dices (+/- SEM) of 0.947 +/- 0.028 and 0.61 +/- 0.045, respectively (p < 0. 001), When the GRNN was applied to the validation group, the corresponding c-indices were 0.923 +/- 0.058 and 0.716 +/- 0.095, respectively. Conclusion: An artificial neural network can identify patients with active pulmonary TB more accurately than physicians' clinical assessment.