Economic outcomes and voting behaviour in a multi-party system: An application to the Netherlands

This paper is an empirical study to the effects of economic outcomes on par ty choice for the Netherlands. In the first part of the paper we employ a m ultinomial logit model to examine the links between voters' characteristics and party choice. The results suggest that there are long-run movements in party choice which are unlikely be the result of changing economic outcome s. In the second part, we use time series analysis to determine the effects of economic conditions on short-run and medium-run movements in votes shar es. The estimations results provide support for the responsibility hypothes is and for the predictions of the partisan voter model that left-wing (righ t-wing) parties benefit (suffer) from favourable economic growth prospects.