Climate variability and trends in SSU radiances: A comparison of model predictions and satellite observations in the middle stratosphere

Several recent studies have highlighted the potential of utilizing statisti cal techniques to pattern match observations and model simulations in order to establish a causal relationship between anthropogenic activity and clim ate change. Up to now these have tended to concentrate upon the spatial or vertical patterns of temperature change. Given the availability of contiguo us, global-scale satellite observations over the past two decades, in this paper the authors seek to employ an analogous technique to spatially match model predictions to directly measured radiances. As part of the initial in vestigations, the technique to channel 1 of the Stratospheric Sounding Unit , sensitive to stratospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations, is applied. Over the majority of the globe the observations show a negativ e trend in brightness temperature, with significant decreases occurring thr oughout the Tropics. The influence of the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo can also be clearly identified. Simulated brightness tem perature fields, against which the satellite data are compared, are calcula ted using atmospheric temperature profiles from a transient climate change run of the Hadley Centre GCM. The modeled change pattern also indicates a g lobal reduction in brightness temperature but with an altered spatial distr ibution relative to the observations. This tendency is reflected in the tre nds seen in the correlation statistics. One, dominated by the spatial mean change, shows a significant positive trend; while the other, influenced by patterns around this mean, exhibits a reducing correlation with time. Possi ble reasons for this behavior are discussed, and the importance of both imp roving model parameterizations and performing additional "unforced" simulat ions to assess the role of natural variability is stressed.