An easier way to calibrate

Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approx imately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that "K-initialized myopic strategies" are appro ximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first "initialize" by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t, the minmax strategy in a static game. Journal of Economic Literature Cla ssification Numbers: C72, C73, C63, D83. (C) 1999 Academic Press.