Nj. Robinson et al., Type of partnership and heterosexual spread of HIV infection in rural Uganda: results from simulation modelling, INT J STD A, 10(11), 1999, pp. 718-725
The objective was to estimate the likely percentage of HIV infections that
may be attributable to one-off partnerships (such as those between female s
ex workers and their clients) and longer-term partnerships in rural Uganda.
This was addressed by the application of a microsimulation model (SimulAID
S) of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection, drawing on data from a po
pulation cohort of 10,000 in rural Uganda. For a scenario reproducing docum
ented characteristics of the study population in 1990, when adult HIV preva
lence was 9%, and during subsequent follow up (1990-1994), when adult HIV i
ncidence was 8 per 1000 person-years, the percentage of HIV infections in m
en (women) attributed to one-off partnerships decreased from 96% (26%) duri
ng 1980 to 67% (8%) in 1989 and 22% (5%) in 1994. Reducing HIV transmission
between one-off partners early in an HIV epidemic may substantially limit
the potential for the spread of HIV infection. At a later phase, prevention
must also focus on control of transmission between longer-term HIV-discord
ant partners.