Optimisation as a statistical estimation tool: An example in estimating the AIDS treatment-free incubation period distribution

The identification of the AIDS incubation period distribution, together wit h its parameters, is a vital component of any epidemiological model designe d to portray scenarios concerning future trends in reported AIDS cases or t o evaluate intervention strategies. The Transfusion-Associated dataset of A IDS cases in the U.S.A. can be utilised in this identification process. By employing an appropriate system dynamics software tool an optimisation appr oach to the fitting process has been conducted. However, although the task of interpreting a best fit using parametric methods is hampered because, in particular, situations where projections of future AIDS incidence are bein g attempted. The work is also an affirmation of the utility of the system d ynamics approach insofar as real-world complications can be easily handled in model formulation. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.